Voting has finished in two by-elections that represent the first tests for the main political parties of 2024, ahead of a national contest later this year.
In Wellingborough and Kingswood the Government is defending majorities of more than 10,000, while Labour hopes to see its poll lead translate into votes.
The elections follow a week of difficult headlines for both main parties.
The Conservatives face questions over their economic record after it emerged on Thursday that the UK had entered a recession at the end of 2023.
Labour has been mired in an antisemitism row and criticism of its decision to withdraw a pledge to spend £28 billion on green projects.
Both contests are seen largely as two-horse races between Labour and the Conservatives, but could also provide an indication of the strength of Reform UK, which has seen its polling numbers surge as it targets disgruntled voters on the right.
A Tory defeat in either constituency would also mean that the Government has clocked up more by-election losses in a single parliament than any administration since the 1960s.
The circumstances surrounding both by-elections could also prove difficult for the governing party.
Kingswood’s vote was triggered by Chris Skidmore’s resignation as an MP in protest at Government legislation to boost North Sea oil and gas drilling.
Labour needs a much smaller swing to overturn the Conservative majority of 11,220 than those it recently secured in Tamworth, Selby and Ainsty and Mid Bedfordshire.
The by-election in Wellingborough comes after former Tory MP Peter Bone received a six-week suspension from the Commons when an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct.
His majority in 2019 was 18,540, leaving Labour with a tougher task than Kingswood but still requiring a smaller swing than those the party achieved in by-elections in 2023.
The selection of Mr Bone’s partner, Helen Harrison, as the Conservative candidate in his former seat has been a source of controversy, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak last month declining to say whether he would be campaigning for her.
Defeat in either or both Wellingborough and Kingswood would mean the Tories have lost more by-elections in a parliament than any government since the 1966-70 Labour administration of Harold Wilson, which suffered 15 losses.
A double defeat, and especially one that saw Reform translate its polling numbers into votes, could also heighten concern among Conservative MPs that Mr Sunak will not be able to lead them to victory at the next general election.
Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign coordinator, said: “We are proud of the positive campaigns we have run in Kingswood and Wellingborough. We were always aware of the challenge ahead of us with the large Conservative majorities in both seats, which are both beyond our target list for a general election.
“Our campaigns have focused relentlessly on the cost of living and delivering for working people. We have highlighted that people in Kingswood and Wellingborough deserve better than a Tory government which has presided over 14 years of failure and left the economy in tatters with Rishi’s recession, and is unable to concentrate on what matters to people in both these areas and across the country.
“It will be some time before we know the results, but we are making real progress in all corners of our country and showing that with Labour, we can get Britain’s future back.”
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