Terrorism-related threat in Northern Ireland lowered from severe to substantial

Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris (James Manning/PA)

The terrorism-related threat in Northern Ireland has been lowered from severe to substantial.

Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris announced the revised assessment from MI5 on Wednesday.

A severe threat means an attack is highly likely, while a substantial threat means one is considered likely.

Dissident republicans opposed to the peace process continue to pose the main threat to national security in Northern Ireland. The violent extremists have been responsible for several sporadic attacks in recent years.

The lowering of the threat comes after a year when there were no security-related deaths in Northern Ireland for the first time since police records began in 1969.

The Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) annual security statistics for 2023 did however show a rise in paramilitary activity including shootings, bombings and assaults.

King Charles III visit to Northern Ireland – Day 1 — Detective Chief Superintendent John Caldwell (Brian Lawless/PA)

The statistics included the shooting of senior PSNI detective John Caldwell by dissident republicans in Co Tyrone in February 2023. Mr Caldwell survived the murder attempt, but suffered extensive injuries.

Mr Heaton Harris said MI5’s assessment process was “systematic, comprehensive and rigorous” and based on the very latest intelligence and analysis of other factors driving the threat.

“The fact that the threat level is being lowered is testament to the tremendous efforts of the Police Service of Northern Ireland and MI5 to tackle Northern Ireland related terrorism,” he said.

“This positive step reflects the commitment of communities from across Northern Ireland to build a safer place to live and work.

“As ever, the public should remain vigilant and report any concerns they may have to the police. There remains a small group of people determined to destabilise the political settlement in Northern Ireland through acts of terrorism.

“The Government, police and intelligence agencies will continue to work tirelessly to address the threat posed by terrorism in all its forms. The threat level will be kept under constant review.”