SNP’s lead over Labour narrowing in Westminster voting intentions, poll finds

Labour has narrowed the gap on the SNP at the general election, according to the latest polling.

The SNP remains ahead in Westminster voting intentions with a seven-point lead over Labour, the Ipsos Scottish Political Monitor, run in partnership with STV News, suggests.

However, the SNP’s lead has continued to decline over recent months, falling from a 12-point lead in May 2023 and 10 points in November.

The poll, which surveyed 1,005 Scots aged 16 and over between January 25 and 31, also found the SNP remains the most trusted party, despite Labour making gains on issues including the NHS and economy.

The survey puts the SNP at 39%, down one from November, while Labour is up two points at 32%, the Tories are on 14%, also dropping one, while the Liberal Democrats are unchanged at 6%.

The Greens and other parties are at 4% each.

Support for Scottish independence is at 53% in the latest polling, compared to 47% against.

At a Holyrood level, the SNP has a nine-point lead over Labour – down from 14 in May and 12 in November.

The SNP support is unchanged at 39% while the Labour vote is up three points at 30%.

After more than 16 years in Government, 32% of respondents said they trust the SNP most to manage the NHS, while 27% chose Labour – an increase of seven points.

Labour also made gains on economic trust at 23%, but the SNP remained top with 32%.

The gap narrowed on trust on education, with the SNP taking 31% while Labour’s seven-point gain puts them at 26%.

Emily Gray, managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said: “These results underline that while the Labour Party is making considerable headway in Scotland, the party’s leadership should not be complacent about the SNP as an electoral force.

“Humza Yousaf’s party still has a lead on voting intention for both Westminster and Holyrood elections and is the party that the Scottish public trust most to manage the NHS, the economy, education and the cost-of-living crisis.

“The direction of travel will worry the SNP as Labour has been gaining ground across a range of policy issues, while trust in the SNP has been on the wane.

“Given the profile of marginal seats in Scotland, even small changes in vote share can make a big difference to the final result – which means there is still much uncertainty for the parties at this point in an election year.”

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “It is encouraging that people across Scotland continue to support the SNP and our strong record in Government.

“The SNP will never take a single vote for granted and will keep delivering for people across Scotland every day by focusing on their priorities.”