Labour ahead of SNP in Westminster voting intentions, poll suggests

Scottish Labour has pulled ahead of the SNP in Westminster voting intentions and the parties are neck-and-neck in the Holyrood constituency vote, an opinion poll suggests.

The poll if the first to be conducted since it became clear John Swinney would be the next SNP leader and First Minister, replacing Humza Yousaf.

Mr Swinney suggested the poll was “not particularly surprising” given recent events for the SNP, adding that he would work to put his party in a “winning position”.

The Savanta poll for The Scotsman saw 1,080 Scottish adults interviewed online between May 3 and May 8.

Kate Forbes, who was seen as Mr Swinney’s main potential rival for the leadership within the SNP MSP group, announced she would not run against him on May 2.

For the Westminster vote, the poll puts Labour on 37%, the SNP on 33%, the Conservatives on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 7% and “other” on 6%.

Savanta said it is its first poll showing a Labour lead over the SNP in Westminster voting intentions.

It said that according to the seat modelling site Electoral Calculus, the results, if replicated at a general election, would see 29 Labour MPs elected in Scotland.

For the Holyrood constituency vote, the poll puts Labour and the SNP tied on 35%.

Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour is ahead in the Holyrood list vote – at 32% compared to the SNP’s 26%.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said: “This is the first time ever that Savanta’s research has shown a Labour lead over the SNP for Westminster voting intention.

“Our findings really do underline the major uphill task that John Swinney faces as the new First Minister.

“While our research suggests that the SNP continues to have a solid base, they’re likely to fall quite far from the 43 seats they currently hold at the next general election, as things stand.

“Even if Swinney can begin to turn things around, the spectre of Sturgeon and everything her time in power is now associated with will continue to hang over the party and hamper any recovery.”

The First Minister was asked about the poll as he visited the Cameron Bridge railway station which is under construction in Fife.

He told the PA news agency: “I suspect a poll of that type is not particularly surprising given the type of period the SNP has had.

“What I’m focused on is making sure we get ourselves into a winning position, that I unite the SNP to take that message forward and that’s precisley what I’m doing.

“I think the early indications of the progress I’m making are very encouraging.”

SNP depute leader Keith Brown said: “Under John Swinney’s leadership, the SNP is laser-focused on boosting Scotland’s economy, supporting Scotland’s public services and protecting people in Scotland from Westminster’s cost of living.

“After 14 years of cruel Tory governments inflicting endless damage on Scotland and Keir Starmer’s Labour offering no meaningful alternative, it’s clear only the SNP will stand up for the priorities of people across Scotland.

“At the general election, Scottish voters have the chance to reject the cosy status quo of a broken Westminster system that is failing them and vote to elect SNP MPs who will always stand up for their interests and offer a positive vision for the future where decisions about Scotland are made in Scotland.”