Indy ref: Is Scotland ready to take the plunge?

A Yes vote would signal the birth of a new nation.

Of course Scotland was independent centuries ago but the world has moved on a bit since then. The new country would have to quickly find its place in the current world order. That process would start with the neighbours.

The SNP claim the family of nations that make up Britain would still continue. But families fall out could Scotland make a real enemy of the auld enemy?

Scotland would certainly no longer have a seat at the top table in the various clubs it would want to join the United Nations, the EU, Nato.

But is that such a bad thing when being a leading light in those organisations, as the UK is, can lead to all sorts of unwanted entanglements.

The last few months have been scarred by a series of global conflicts and crises in Ukraine, Syria and Gaza. Would Scotland want a role in tackling these flashpoints?

And even if they did would an independent Scotland have the clout or the wherewithal to do anything about it? The referendum may be about independence, but in today’s globalised world, where you fit into the world order matters.

The United Kingdom

Scotland being downtrodden by the English is a story which has played out for centuries to varying degrees of accuracy along the way.

Today, a keen rivalry still exists between the two nations, but any notion of oppression is at the margins of the independence debate.

As the Scots historian and author Professor Christopher Whatley put it: “We haven’t been in bed with an elephant or if we have it’s been a very benign elephant, a teddy bear.”

But could a Yes vote stir up centuries-old bad blood with the Auld Enemy? England is a far from an unwelcome place for Scots, otherwise more than 750,000 of them would not have made the country their home.

Likewise, it is safe to assume the 366,000 English living north of the Border do not do so under duress.

In terms of trade, billions of pounds worth of goods flow between the two countries, with Scotland exporting twice as much to the rest of the UK as it does to the rest of the world.

And every year there are more than six million trips north by English tourists.

Deep family and cultural ties cement the idea the two countries are inextricably linked. Some argue that a common bond between friends and family who live either side of the Border will be lost with the breakup of the UK but as the Yes camp point out, it is hard to envisage people ending personal relationships because they no longer live in the same country as say their cousin or best friend.

The real test of the relationship between Scotland and England will depend on the deal struck at any post-Yes negotiations between Holyrood and Westminster.

Unlike when the Act of Union creating the UK was signed in 1707, where arrangements such as new customs and tax rates were hammered out in advance, so much of what an independent Scotland would look like will be left up to negotiation.

These talks wouldn’t need to descend into a ‘Scotland versus England’ battle but there are a number of potential flashpoints including border and passport controls, currency and the consumer subsidies for renewable energy.

Where any post-independence carve-up will be most keenly observed will be in the north-west and north-east.

Politicians and business leaders in these areas are already wary and envious of what devolution has done for Scotland as its nearest competitor for investment.

If independence was to deliver cuts in corporation tax and air passenger duty, as promised, then this could set Scotland on a collision course with the north of England.

For that area, caught between tax-cutting Scotland and an all-powerful London is a difficult place to be. Alex Salmond has made a number of speeches south of the Border where he has insisted an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK would still be “closest friends”.

By contrast, in February, David Cameron issued a rallying cry to voters in England, Wales and Northern Ireland to tell Scots to reject independence, adding he could not bear to see the country “torn apart”.

The address was dismissed by the First Minister but was also largely ignored by its target audience, many of whom have felt they don’t really have a horse in this race.

Truth is, relations between Scotland and England have been civil for centuries now and this should prove to be a difficult habit to break, whatever the outcome of the referendum.

The rest of the UK

Scotland has always thrived on its international links many, if not most, forged in the days of the British Empire.

Yet Alex Salmond has described his vision of a “Scotland whose importance is judged on its usefulness to the rest of humanity, not on fading imperial grandeur”.

But the Scottish Government wants to be in the Commonwealth an organisation rooted in the imperial past.

There’s a long list of letters in the Scotland’s Future document setting out the other international bodies an independent Scotland would seek to join including the EU, the UN, the World Trade Organisation and European Court of Human Rights. Some will be more tricky than others to get in to.

Joining the EU would be an independent Scotland’s first foreign policy goal. Most experts believe Scotland would get in, the question is whether it is via the slow or fast route.

Getting into the UN should be more straightforward. But of course Scotland won’t be on the Security Council as the UK is now.

In both the EU and the UN Scotland would be a much smaller player. It would need to build alliances to progress its foreign policy goals.

Alex Salmond’s apparent praise for Vladimir Putin, in spite of the Russian leader’s poor record on human rights and unilateral annexation of the Crimea, suggests the SNP will have to learn fast when it comes to diplomacy.

The White Paper sets out plans for a total of 70-90 embassies and high commissions around the world. That bears comparison with other small nations like Austria and Ireland. But it pales compared with the UK’s current network of 267 global posts.

It is the sheer scale of the UK’s diplomatic network that helps maintain its reputation abroad.

For while it’s easy to write Britain off as a bit washed-up it’s worth noting the UK still came out top in a survey of nations with most soft power that’s the ability to influence and persuade and third in a list of the strongest national brands.

But an independent Scotland would not be starting from scratch on the global stage.

The Scottish diaspora of expats around the globe would provide a head-start in terms of soft power and Scotland already has a strong overseas reputation when it comes to whisky, sport and tourism.

Everyone seems to agree Scotland could make its way in the world as a small independent nation. But, the independence that would give Scotland a distinct voice internationally would also leave it relying on the co-operation of others to amplify it.