Jim Murphy: There will be no referendum but talking it up suits Sturgeon and Johnson

Former Secretary of State for Scotland Jim Murphy has dismissed any chances of a second independence referendum next year but says both Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson will be happy for the constitution to dominate political debate.

Murphy, also previously Scottish Labour leader and who now runs strategic advice consultancy Arden Strategies, says there won’t be a referendum in 2022 because neither Nicola Sturgeon nor Boris Johnson wants one.

In a preview of 2022 on his firm’s website, Murphy says: “Neither Boris Johnson nor Nicola Sturgeon want a Scottish independence referendum in 2022.

“Sturgeon isn’t confident of winning and would be removed by her party after another defeat. And Johnson wouldn’t survive the break in our island union.”

Murphy says both leaders will want to keep the issue alive throughout 2022. He says: “While she (Sturgeon) doesn’t want an immediate-term vote, she does need to prove to a restless party that they are making progress towards a second referendum.

“She is conservative/incrementalist by nature and won’t want to trample on the EU’s red line of entertaining a Catalonia-style illegal plebiscite.”

Meanwhile, he says it serves Johnson to have the continued threat of independence. He says: “In England his party can continue to re-risk the idea of the SNP holding the balance of power at Westminster.

“In Scotland, its two governments at loggerheads over constitutional identity may continue to hamstring Scottish Labour’s recovery.

“Interestingly, if Starmer continues to lead Johnson in the British polls that may blunt the SNP’s assertion that independence is the only route to a social democratic Scotland.”