George Osborne out of time as storm approaches

“Osborne will put on a bold front this week, but the fact is the bald figures will be worrying.”

At a recent lunch in Westminster at which George Osborne was the guest speaker, the woman introducing him said Wednesday would be his last autumn statement speech.

She quickly corrected herself by adding, “before the general election”.

But Osborne most likely is into his final stretch as Chancellor.

Not necessarily because he’ll be replaced by Ed Balls come next May, but because it’s widely believed that he feels he’s fixed the economy over the course of this parliament and, should the Tories get elected in the spring, he covets the Foreign Secretary job.

Since an EU referendum will follow a Tory triumph in 2015, the political action will be in the Foreign Office and in Brussels.

And Osborne has some experience of referendums. He’s widely credited as the back seat driver who directed much of Number 10’s efforts in winning the Scottish independence referendum.

Even Alex Salmond, in a recent interview, had to admit begrudging respect for Osborne’s tactical nous.

Politics is one thing, economics another. For if Osborne does think he’s got the economy motoring again he’s wrong. And he’ll have to admit it on Wednesday.

He set a number of targets upon taking office most of which have, one way or another, been missed.

For example, borrowing is up, not down. And the current account is not in balance.

In opposition, parties love reducing the complexities of the British economy to simplistic comparisons with the family budget or credit card bills.

Once they get in power, they discover that it’s a bit more complicated.

Osborne will put on a bold front this week, but the fact is the bald figures will be worrying.

The Prime Minister likes to say that the British economy is outperforming the rest of the European economy. On some markers, such as job creation, we’re beating the rest of Europe put together.

Trouble is, the rest of Europe is doing rubbish. Beating them is akin to being at the top of the bottom division in football. It hardly constitutes glory days.

And the concern is that if the European economy stutters it will bring us down with it because, despite what the Eurosceptics think and say, we are very closely entwined.

This all leaves the arch-tactician Osborne with a political headache.

There are two competing messages to take into the next election.

Osborne would like to say that the economy is healed and the Tories will be giving out sweeties for everyone in the next parliament. But he can’t.

Instead there’s increasing briefing that the global economic outlook is a bit stormy, so best not switch captain and keep David Cameron at the helm to deal with whatever’s coming.

Folk might feel instead that it is worth making the current crew walk the plank given they don’t seem to have made things a whole lot better than they were in 2010?

Yes, they might. Except the salty seadog opposite Osborne is Ed Balls with a worryingly large number of tales of shipwrecks to recount from his time at the wheel.

Labour have very little to offer by way of an alternative at the autumn statement. The best they could come up with last week was a pledge to sell off a restaurant the Government apparently owns in St James’ Park, London.

Most people did not respond to this announcement by praising the fiscal fabulousness of Ed Balls and his team, but by expressing surprise that we taxpayers own a restaurant anywhere. And since we do own it, does it mean we can stop by for some cut-price capital scran?

For Osborne the economic outlook may be choppy, but as long as Labour keeps cooking up policies that are more Gordon Ramsay than Gordon Brown, the political waters look benign.