Cabinet reshuffle careers will be killed off and names made

Reshuffles are big moments in the political news cycle because they offer a beguiling mix of musical chairs and Game Of Thrones.

This week David Cameron is expected to refresh his team with the most vigorous spin of the ministerial merry go round of his premiership. It will offer opportunities for redemption and rejection. Careers will be killed off, names will be made.

Throw in a big dose of gender politics and all the ingredients are there for drama in Downing Street.

A big problem is that just as in the economy at large there’s not enough jobs for all the people that want them.

The great offices of state Home Office, Foreign Office, Treasury will be unchanged mainly because the incumbents are doing a decent job. But, for the first time, the whole raft of second tier posts are up for grabs. The hottest rumour concerns the biggest scalp Iain Duncan Smith could be for the chop at the Department for Work and Pensions. His pet project of Universal Credit is over budget and behind schedule but he could just about leave with honour intact if he gets out now before the full scale of the disaster is revealed. His number two and protg Esther McVey would love to step up and there’s also talk of IDS job swapping with Philip Hammond at Defence.

But if the DWP needs a safe pair of hands Cameron may turn to the fat fingers of Eric Pickles and that would free up the Communities and Local Government job for one of his few big city MPs Andrew Mitchell. Mitchell remember resigned after being accused of being rude and condescending to Downing Street police. He’s been almost entirely vindicated on that score since so there’s nothing standing in the way of a return.

When Mitchell did stand down from the chief whip job Sir George Young, who’d been sacked just weeks previously, was brought back to replace him. Now Sir George, the bicycling baronet, is certain to leave the Cabinet again. He’s apparently been joking in the tea rooms that this will be the fourth and last time he’ll be sacked.

He’s likely to be joined in the departure lounge by fellow veteran Ken Clarke, though that’s been predicted throughout this government and he’s stuck around. Clarke’s minister without portfolio so unlikely to be replaced, Sir George’s job is a big one in an election year and there’s a few contenders.

His deputy Greg Hands is tipped but Liam Fox has long been touted for the role too and it’s believed he’s cleared his diary for the next few weeks in anticipation of it filling with ministerial meetings.

Nicky Morgan, now at the Treasury, impressed in the Whips Office and Claire Perry has been uncharacteristically quiet there so both could be in the frame to be Chief Whip. They have the benefit of being female and the Coalition pledged to have women in a third of ministerial posts. They probably won’t manage that but this reshuffle will be the last chance to get close.

Penny Mordaunt, once a contestant on reality show Splash!, is likely to go from diving belle to forces sweetheart with a job at the Ministry of Defence.

And it’s to be hoped Anna Soubry, who learnt the streetfighting style she’s recently turned on Ukip as a cub reporter on the mean streets of Alloa, will get a promotion.

But if parliament’s Lois Lane is on the up, the MP whose biography most resembles Superman could be on the way out. Ed Davey was raised an orphan and once saved a woman from the path of an oncoming train. But the speculation is that Jo Swinson will replace him as Energy Secretary. Davey’s been a donkey while Swinson has sparkled as a business and equality minister so it would make sense.

The Energy Department is a Lib Dem ministry so it’ll be Nick Clegg who’ll risk having Davey’s laser eyes trained on him from the backbenches if he’s axed.

It’s time for Clegg and Cameron to choose their team of heroes to take them into the General Election.