Even quarter-finals may be dream too far for England

In 160 days’ time, England begin their World Cup campaign against Italy in the heat and humidity of Manaus in the Amazon rain forest.

Roy Hodgson has only the March friendly against Denmark before he names his provisional squad.

After that, the plan is one more Wembley friendly, a game in the USA, then on to their training base in Rio de Janeiro.

Because he will have virtually no time with his players there will be just one proper training session before the Denmark game his decisions on who makes the cut must be based on club form.

Injuries permitting, though, perhaps 19 of his final 23 are already guaranteed a seat on the plane.

All eight defence spots are firmly secured. Glen Johnson and Kyle Walker will be the right-backs, Ashley Cole and Leighton Baines the left.

The four central defenders will be Phil Jagielka, Gary Cahill, Chris Smalling and Phil Jones. Joe Hart and Ben Foster will be two of the keepers, the third a choice between Fraser Forster and John Ruddy.

The four strikers are also nailed on Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Danny Welbeck and Theo Walcott.

In midfield Hodgson is likely to have already chosen five of the eight. Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard and Michael Carrick will go, along with Jack Wilshere and James Milner.

As things stand, it will be two from Tom Cleverley, Adam Lallana, Ross Barkley and Jordan Henderson, plus someone to provide width.

Andros Townsend is in possession but Aaron Lennon and Raheem Sterling are in better form.

Is that a squad good enough to win the trophy? No. Are they serious contenders for the last four? Probably not.

But if they avoid defeat by Italy in the first game, England should get out of the group.

There’s optimism about the impact Wilshere and Barkley might make and Rooney is due a good tournament.

Much depends on Gerrard, Lampard and Cole making their legs match their experience, and on Jagielka and Cahill’s ability to handle some razor-sharp strikers.

England are usually disappointed to be a quarter-final team but this time that would be very acceptable.