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A Reckless win would trigger a Tory crisis

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The worst thing about getting back from holiday is immediately having to do the mundane tasks like opening the bills and catching up with the washing.

For the Government last week, their first job was akin to cleaning out the cat litter as they returned from recess to find they had to deal with UKIP.

First up was the introduction of “new” MP Douglas Carswell, who isn’t new at all but whereas in August he was a Conservative, in October he represents UKIP after defecting and winning the subsequent Clacton by-election. Tory strategists are still scratching their heads about why he won so handsomely.

Given one of those interviewed by the media in the run up to the poll said they were voting for Carswell because the previous MP was useless despite the fact the previous MP WAS Carswell, they may well be puzzling a little longer.

To give themselves some thinking time the Government has scheduled the next UKIP-induced by-election one month from tomorrow.

This next month could have a huge bearing on the outcome of May’s General Election.

For the general consensus is that if the Conservatives lose in Rochester and Strood the seat vacated by Mark Reckless when he switched to UKIP and which he’s now trying to win for his new party then they are extremely unlikely to get a majority next May.

The question is which of Charlotte Bronte’s Rochesters do voters in Rochester think UKIP is most like Mr Rochester who is serious and irresistible or Mrs Rochester who is crazy and likely to wreck everything.

The former will be a clear signal that in seats the Tories must win UKIP are going to sap their support to a significant extent.

Which is why the Tories are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at it.

They think they’ve got a better chance of holding on to the Kent seat for a start.

Carswell in Clacton was charismatic and clever. Reckless in Rochester is rotund and redundant.

His most famous moment in parliament was when he got so drunk he couldn’t vote on the Coalition’s first budget, earning him the nickname Mark Legless.

Though, to be fair to him, by taking the media glare off that incident he gallantly deflected attention from a female colleague who was in an even more inebriated state so much so she allegedly was sick over one of the doorkeepers and had to pay the dry cleaning bill for their fancy uniform.

So the citizens of Rochester and Strood must brace for an influx of Tory activists, MPs and Team 2015 Grant Shapps’ bus-full of young Conservatives geed up on election fever who inject energy into the campaign and cash into the local pubs.

Westminster on the other hand must prepare for a mountain of measures aimed at winning back disaffected Tories from UKIP.

On Friday, there was a sense of dj vu as the Commons once again debated a backbench motion to hold an EU referendum.

Earlier in the week David Cameron had revealed he would attempt as part of his EU renegotiation strategy to undo Europe’s free flowing immigration policy and give Britain full control of its borders.

In policy terms, this was described as a “big bazooka”.

But the newspaper that was handed the scoop, and is often fond of defending cherished press freedoms, failed to carry out its basic duty in that regard and ask the PM how this political weapon would actually work.

A bazooka of any size without a mechanism is a blunt weapon of limited use. And the EU quickly defused it by pointing out that such immigration powers can only be granted under European rules in the event of a full-blown crisis.

For David Cameron, losing in Rochester and Strood, could prove just such a crisis.