OAPs panic over Yes vote

72% fear for pension if UK is split.

Almost three-quarters of OAPs are worried Scotland may not be able to afford to pay for state pensions if it breaks away from the UK.

An exclusive poll for The Sunday Post shows 72% are either very concerned or somewhat concerned about how pensions will be funded if there’s a Yes vote in next month’s referendum.

A staggering nine out of 10 older people intend to vote in the historic poll on September 18. But fewer than a third are planning to put a cross in the Yes box with 54.8% saying they will vote No and the remaining 12.6% still undecided.

The results will make grim reading for Alex Salmond who also polled poorly on the issue of trust.

Asked which politician they trusted most on the issue of pensions Alistair Darling came out on top at 24%, with the First Minister lagging way behind on 12%.

Polling guru Professor John Curtice said: “Older voters have consistently been more sceptical about the idea of independence so this poll is in line with that trend, but the link with pensions is interesting. It is clearly a front-of-mind issue for people in this age group and we see that people appear to associate more risk to their pension with a Yes vote than a No vote.

“When we look at the people with concerns about the state pension, 79% of undecided voters have concerns and that is a serious issue for the Yes side.

“Darling’s rating [as most trusted politician] is not surprising he had a lift in his approval ratings following the first TV debate. But the big thing for both campaigns is turnout among older voters. They are going to vote in big numbers.”

The poll of 1,003 Scots over the age of 60 was carried out by Survation last week and gives the first real insight into the powerful “grey vote”.

Once the undecided voters are excluded, support for a Yes vote stands at 37.3% and No at 62.7%.

Only a third of Scots said they had enough information about what would happen to their state and private pensions in the event of a Yes vote, with 59% saying they did not feel well enough informed.

Asked if they were concerned or unconcerned about how the state pension would be funded in an independent Scotland, a total of 72% were either “very” or “somewhat” concerned. This contrasts with 41% of respondents saying they have concerns about funding the old-age pension if Scotland remains part of the UK.

And on private pensions, 48% had concerns about funding if there is a Yes vote compared with 20% if the status quo remains.

Tory MSP Annabel Goldie said: “No wonder pensioners are worried about independence. We know from the infamous leaked paper prepared by John Swinney that he was worried about pensions.

“Supported by the broad economy of the UK we know that we are safe. With Alex Salmond’s independence our pensions are not. He is a man of two certainties. His passion and enthusiasm for what he wants and his complete and utter inability to tell the rest of us what we will get.

“What will be our currency? How do we cope with a yawning chasm between what we raise and what we spend? Is it cuts to public expenditure or hefty tax rises? Or both? How high will our interest rates be?

“He simply doesn’t know. It is completely unacceptable.”

The issue of pensions has been a huge battleground in the referendum debate with the SNP suggesting it could delay the increase in the pension age to 67 as well as pledging to make pensioners £260 a year better off by increasing the state payout for OAPs.

The poll asked people if they thought these proposals, which given the growing number of older people critics claim would cost hundreds of millions of pounds a year, were achievable. A total of 31% said they were, 42% disagreed and the rest were not sure.

A spokesman for Yes Scotland said: “The state pension is guaranteed to be paid on time and in full in an independent Scotland. The UK Government has told pensioners: ‘If Scotland does become independent this will have no effect on your state pension; you will continue to receive it just as you do at present’.

“And spending on benefits and pensions will be more affordable in an independent Scotland than the UK as a whole, because it takes up a smaller proportion of both our tax revenues and national income. With independence we’ll have the opportunity to design an economic policy that puts job creation in Scotland first. This means fewer young people will have to leave Scotland for work.”

In a new book Alex Salmond’s former policy chief Alex Bell warns no part of the UK can afford to keep paying the state pension at current levels.

But he claims this is not included in the Scottish Government’s White Paper on independence because it is a “political sin” to make such an admission.

Sunday Post Opinion

It was the hundreds of readers’ letters asking about pensions over the last six months which sparked the idea for commissioning what is the first comprehensive survey of older voters’ views.

How to pay for both state and public-sector pensions has been an elephant in the room for successive UK governments who have either lacked the courage or ability to deal with the issue.

More than half the money collected through council tax in Scotland goes towards public sector pensions and our growing elderly population is pushing up the state pension bill every year, so it’s an issue which can’t be ignored. But the independence White Paper not only kicks the problem down the road but actually makes it more of a challenge with the promise of even higher payouts.

Alex Salmond’s former policy chief, Alex Bell, sums up the issue neatly in his new book: “At some point in the near future we have to be honest about pensions the state cannot afford the promises it made several decades ago.”

Being honest about pensions is a bitter pill which no politician appears to be prepared to swallow, not least the ones trying to convince sceptical voters to back a Yes vote.

The polling figures don’t look good for the Yes camp.

Pensioners clearly feel they don’t have the answers or at least don’t have confidence in what they have been told, so Mr Salmond’s side has a lot of work to do to reverse this.