Hamilton by-election will reveal state of parties heading into Holyrood vote

First Minister John Swinney sent an open letter to Labour supporters asking them to support the SNP rather than Reform.

Nigel Farage’s far-right Reform party is unlikely to win its first Holyrood seat in the Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse by-election but could upturn the Scottish Parliament next year, experts say.

Despite outspending other parties and Farage grabbing headlines over race attacks on Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar, Reform is still expected to come second or third in the vote on Thursday.

But if its current level of support of around 19% north of the border holds up to next May’s Scottish Parliament election, a new band of Reform MSPs could sit on influential Holyrood committees and have a decisive say in laws passed.

The by-election is being held following the death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie, who won the Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse seat three times, most recently in 2021 with a majority of over 4,500.

SNP candidate Katy Loudon at an event with the FM.

Polling expert Mark Diffley, founder of the research agency Diffley Partnership, said: “I don’t think Reform will win on Thursday. The issue is how well they do in taking Labour votes.

“One of the main reasons why this by-election is so significant is that we’re now only 11 months away from the next Holyrood election. It will be a proper measure of where the parties are at.

“Based on their current support, I suspect Reform won’t win any constituencies next year, but they will certainly win a lot of regional MSPs, maybe even 20 on a very significant night for them.

“We haven’t had a party of the radical right in Scottish politics before, so it’s going to completely change the nature of our politics.

“They’ll be on committees and have a significant say on legislation passing. They say quite openly that they haven’t actually worked out what their policy platform is. Beyond what they have said on immigration, the environment and Net Zero and myriad cultural issues, we don’t really know what they think.

“But they will certainly stand on a ticket of disrupting Holyrood. A go-to example might be Ukip in the European Parliament, where they had a significant presence in a parliament they didn’t really want to be in.

“I’m not saying that Reform don’t want to be in Holyrood, clearly they do, but they’ll try to disrupt and undermine the institutions kind of from within. I think that’s a worry for quite a lot of people.”

Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and Labour party candidate Davy Russell during a walk about in Quarter.

During the Hamilton by-election campaign, Reform has been condemned by Labour and the SNP for “injecting poison” into Scottish politics with online race attacks on Sarwar.

However, Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University warned that outrage at Reform from the SNP and Labour had only helped to boost its profile.

The polling guru said: “Reform is winning the campaign hands down.

“The other parties have just given him (Nigel Farage) brilliant publicity for all his controversial adverts.

“It’s the usual story of if you don’t think something is a problem, don’t give it publicity.”

In an open letter to Labour supporters on Thursday, First Minister John Swinney urged them to lend their votes to the SNP to defeat Reform in Hamilton.

But Professor Curtice warned that Swinney’s plea could see more Conservative voters turning to Reform.

He said: “Trying to persuade people to vote SNP rather than Labour on the basis they don’t like Reform is not going to be easy, except for the section of the Labour vote that is in favour of independence.

“Swinney runs the risk of making the SNP look worried by talking up Reform, and there are plenty of Tories out there who might be quite happy to give the SNP a bloody nose by switching to Reform.”

Labour Deputy Leader Angela Rayner on the campaign trail in Hamilton.

An opinion poll by Survation last month pointed to Reform winning 21 seats at Holyrood if an election was held tomorrow, making it the main opposition party in Scotland.

Reform has 12 councillors in Scotland and the party claims to have 10,500 members north of the border.

Farage’s outfit has also been buoyed by beating Scottish Labour to claim second place in a council by-election in West Dunbartonshire last month.

Prof Curtice said: “It may well be that we are at peak support for Reform at the moment and that some of it will roll back in the course of the next year.

“But right now Farage is making the weather.”

The candidates

SNP – Katy Loudon

South Lanarkshire councillor Katy Loudon is seeking to keep the seat in the SNP’s hands.

She worked as a primary school teacher for 10 years before being elected a councillor in 2017. She was selected as the SNP’s local government convener last year.

Loudon is aiming to make it third time lucky after failing to win the Westminster seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West at last year’s General Election and at the 2023 by-election held to replace the lockdown scandal MP Margaret Ferrier. During the by-election campaign, Loudon was criticised by Labour for voting against £8 million of investment to regenerate Hamilton town centre.

She replied the SNP has consistently supported a town centre masterplan and the attack was a “disappointing attempt to use an important local issue as a political football”.

She also hit back at Labour candidate Davy Russell’s claim that she needed a high-vis vest to be seen in the constituency.

Labour – Davy Russell

Not to be confused with the Grand National-winning jockey of the same name, Scottish Labour’s candidate is former senior council official Davy Russell.

He worked in local government for 43 years, starting out as a trainee road worker and ending up as a director at Glasgow City Council.

He is one of several deputy lord lieutenants for South Lanarkshire representing King Charles in the area.

Despite the role, he has been accused by opposition politicians of being unable to “string a handful of words together”. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said Russell has been subjected to “classist” attacks.

Russell has also been criticised for avoiding hustings, media interviews and debates, including a candidates’ debate on Scotland Tonight.

He insisted he would “rather be chapping doors and talking and listening to ordinary voters”. But STV political editor Colin Mackay said that, as the hustings begin at 10.40pm tomorrow, “if he is chapping doors, he’s likely to get chased”.

Reform UK – Ross Lambie

Reform UK has selected former Conservative councillor Ross Lambie as its candidate.

Born and raised in Lanarkshire, he graduated as an architect and spent more than a decade running his own practice in London before returning to the area. He is also a lecturer and farmer.

He was elected to the Clydesdale South ward on South Lanarkshire Council in 2022 and stood unsuccessfully in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election and last year’s General Election.

He defected from the Conservatives to Reform earlier this year. In an embarrassing slip, Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice appeared unable to remember Lambie’s surname on a visit to Scotland.

Reform has vowed to scrap Net Zero targets, which it claims will save £30 billion a year. But Lambie has been accused of “hypocrisy of the highest order” after it emerged he benefited from £113,000 in public grants by planting trees on Skye and stands to profit from a large green energy project.

Ghost town wants something new

Hamilton has seen a lot of political activity recently.

By Emma Lawson

On a wet and overcast day, the centre of Hamilton is like a ghost town.

One of its two shopping precincts is closed, while the other has only a few shops left trading.

But while shoppers may be few and far between, the last few weeks have seen a sudden increase in one type of visitor – politicians. First Minister John Swinney, former first minister Nicola Sturgeon and Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner have all been out and about in a bid to drum up votes.

But the reception they have received has not always been positive.

“Hamilton has gone to the dogs,” says James Miller, an 82-year-old who is planning on voting for Reform. “I think they could make a big difference because the problems that we’re having in this country… we can’t afford the amount of asylum seekers that are coming into the country, they’re causing havoc in the NHS and doing a lot of harm.”

He is not alone in his thinking. Andy Burrows, 43, and Sheena Bradley, 31, are also both planning on voting Reform.

Andy, who previously voted for the SNP, says there now needs to be a change and feels that the party of government has done very little.

He says: “I’m really not sure about Nigel Farage, but I’m likely to vote for them, because I think it will be the SNP or Reform who win, so I may as well vote for the someone who might actually do something.

“Look at all this with the ferries, it’s cost almost nearly four times the price and has taken years.”

Sheena says that although she had heard about the First Minister campaigning in Hamilton, his presence wouldn’t change her vote.

“I think he’s done an all right job, but those before him made a mess, and he’s not really done much has he?” she says.

Out of all the people The Sunday Post speaks to, not one mentions voting for Labour.

Asked if she has even considered voting Labour, Suzanne Craine replies simply: “No.”

Suzanne, who instead intends to vote SNP, says: “I think Labour is already out of the game.

“SNP is the only way to go. I don’t like Reform and I don’t really understand them, but SNP are what I know, they’ve done more than what Labour would.”

Katie Douglas says that for the past few elections she has voted SNP, but is now on the fence about who she will vote for.

She says: “The problem is that a lot of people, like me have lost faith in the SNP. I want to vote for them but I’m just not sure anymore.

“I think it would help if they were clearer in what they actually wanted to do, it just seems like they’ve not done much for Scotland that’s why I’m a bit undecided on who I should vote for.

“We need someone who will deal with the problems in front of us.”

A win will prove very little but it would be a start

By Professor James Mitchell

If the polls and pundits are to be believed, Reform is set to cause a political shock in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election.

A win or a good second place will give it momentum and encourage more defections from the Tories, especially if the Tory vote collapses. A decent third place might seem like a failure, though far from a bad result, measured against the hype and expectations the party has built up.

Reform had little choice but to create high expectations if it wanted to make a breakthrough. It was a case of nothing ventured, nothing gained.

And without any MSPs or Scottish MPs, the party has nothing to lose by talking up its prospects. A good result will generate publicity for the party and more excitable speculation on its chances in next year’s Holyrood elections.

Sustaining any momentum will not be easy. There are unlikely to be many opportunities between now and next May. And any slippage in the polls will be pounced on by opponents as evidence that the Reform bubble has burst.

If it does well it will have a right to be taken seriously as a potential electoral threat to the established parties in Scotland and a disrupter in next year’s Holyrood election. But that will come at a cost. Its policies will be scrutinised for consistency and credibility to a much greater extent.

Its Scottish leaders will be tested in interviews.

The relationship between Nigel Farage and the party in Scotland will need to be explained.

As leader of Ukip, Farage supported replacing MSPs with Scottish MPs. That will have limited appeal.

It will take much more than an exceptional result in Hamilton to transform Reform from a protest party into a party with real prospects, but it would be a start.

James Mitchell is Professor of Public Policy at the University of Edinburgh