Jason Leitch: Good reasons why we must all be looking out for number one

The sudden health literacy of the population is one of very few benefits of our current situation.

I never thought when I was doing my dental degree, my subsequent surgical training or my Masters in public health, that I would one day be teaching the public about “R numbers”.

But behavioural science reveals that people are much more likely to follow advice if they know the reasons why they should.

So knowing that we’re keeping the R number – the transmission rate of the virus – below one is crucial.

The curves which have become so familiar to the public at briefings around the world are very helpful in teaching the “why”.

The public has also hopefully realised that with a novel virus which has only existed for four months we are learning every day.

I get daily emails summarising multiple scientific articles published globally. We learn more about the virology, the ability to restrict the spread, testing, treatment options and vaccines.

There are more than 120 vaccine trials already around the world. There are also many treatment trials.

As the science changes, so our advice follows.

Unless we only go on television once a month, we will sometimes have to say we were wrong. But hindsight bias is a dangerous thing.

We have to use the best science to inform our decision-making every day.

But it’s likely tomorrow’s science could be different from today’s.

As of 2pm yesterday, 11,927 people who have been tested in Scotland have proved positive for coronavirus.

We are now assessing the evidence we have, and all of our options, before deciding whether to maintain, tighten or relax the lockdown.

We want to ease restrictions, but can’t rule out having to reapply them, should it become necessary to control this virus.

Physical distancing and limiting contact with others is going to be a fact of life for a long time to come.

A conversation is starting on the “new normal” and we want to be open and transparent about the options for Scotland. We’re being as honest as it’s possible to be, while navigating the biggest challenge we have faced in our lifetimes.

It’s really important that everyone knows our NHS remains open, so if you have any non-Covid health concerns, please continue to see your GP as normal.

We’ve asked GP services and community pharmacies to remain open during the May public holidays – just as they did over Easter. I thank them for their efforts and the vital role they are playing.