Boris Johnson still has time to convince his MPs he is capable of winning another election for the Tories, according to party figures in Scotland.
A YouGov poll last week put Labour six points ahead of the Conservatives and the Prime Minister’s plunging personal approval ratings are similar to Theresa May’s before she was forced to resign.
Another survey on Friday suggested support for the Conservatives was at its lowest point since the last general election, with only 30% of voters saying they would back Tory candidates, down two points in a week and the lowest proportion since September 2019.
The polls follow relentless criticism of Johnson and his government through December and have prompted increasing speculation of a leadership challenge next year giving a successor two years to prepare for a general election.
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The prime minister has been fighting fires on several fronts. Revelations of a series of parties in Downing Street last Christmas when the UK was in lockdown; a rebellion by 100 of his own MPs against stricter Covid restrictions; ongoing scrutiny of the cash used to refurbish his flat; and the loss of North Shropshire, a seat held by the Tories for nearly 200 years, in a by-election, have piled on pressure.
Professor Adam Tomkins, a former Tory MSP, said Labour’s lead in the polls was not unassailable despite a turbulent month for the government.
However, he believes Johnson will need to convince his party that he can win again. Tomkins said: “First, the parliamentary Conservative Party are ruthless when it comes to getting rid of leaders they think are electoral liabilities.
“Secondly, Boris Johnson doesn’t have huge numbers of allies in the parliamentary Conservative Party. Therefore, it is highly likely, if not inevitable, that, once they come to the view he is more of a liability than an asset, it won’t take them very long to turn on him.
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“But they’re not there yet. I would have thought Boris Johnson has a period of months to turn things round. It would take several months of bad polls for the party really to think Boris has lost any kind of electoral credibility.”
Asked how Johnson’s plummeting popularity would affect the Scottish Tories, Tomkins said: “Obviously there will be some voters swayed by events in London, but there will also be quite a lot of voters who aren’t.
“Lots of people will continue to vote Scottish Conservative in order to deny the SNP a majority, even if they really can’t stand Boris Johnson.”
Struan Stevenson, a former Conservative MEP, said: “Any prime minister that sees the polls turn against him and what happened in North Shropshire is going to have to listen very carefully to what the people are saying.
“Boris will continue to be supported by the majority of Conservatives as long as he continues to look like a winner. If that’s no longer the case, there will be trouble afoot. But I don’t seem them changing their minds in the short term.”
Meanwhile, former PM David Cameron has said Johnson is able to “get away with things that mere mortals can’t” while suggesting he would be ill-advised if critical coverage encourages attempts to bypass mainstream media.
Downing Street now employs its own photographers to take pictures of Johnson and his ministers with access not given to press photographers.
Speaking to Sky News, Cameron said: “Boris has always been able to get away with things that mere mortals can’t seem to. But, look, I think you shouldn’t do this to bypass the media. You go on having, whether it is press conferences or interviews or media events – this is important. The media, in that way, has an incredibly important role.”
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