Salmond has a lot riding on Grangemouth

An independent Scotland would struggle to cope with the crisis at the Grangemouth oil refinery, a leading academic has warned.

Roger Seifert said if Alex Salmond succeeds with his attempt to break up Britain a similar dispute could cripple the country. The professor of industrial relations also claimed the row over the plant’s closure could cost the Yes campaign votes in next year’s independence referendum.

His warning came only hours after Mr Salmond ordered unions and management at Grangemouth to “fire up the plant and do it now”. The University of Wolverhampton academic said: “The Grangemouth plant accounts for 10% of Scottish manufacturing but less than 1% of the UK’s. Where you have a small economy and small country they are much more vulnerable to blackmail.”

He added: “About 4,000 workers depend on the plant staying open including immediate workers, contractors and those with shops and businesses in the surrounding area. Any lost jobs will reflect badly on the First Minister. If this is not handled properly by Alex Salmond he will lose votes and the confidence of many which could make a difference to whether he wins the referendum.”

Prof Seifert spoke as a dispute over the future of the site between owner Ineos and Unite trade union continued. Ineos have written to the workers asking them to agree to changes to pensions and other terms and conditions as part of a survival plan.

Unite has accused the company of giving workers an ultimatum of accepting worse pay and conditions or lose their job.

The plant shut down last week as a result of the dispute, with Mr Salmond leaving the SNP conference on Thursday to hold talks between both sides. It’s now emerged it may stay closed at least until after Christmas. A plant source claimed: “The plant is shut for 60 days for a consultation. It can’t re-start until that’s over.”

But as he made his keynote speech to the SNP party conference yesterday, Mr Salmond insisted the facility was not in “mortal danger”.

He said: “I grew up as a boy in Linlithgow and I’ve been conscious of the fires of Grangemouth all my life, but right now that plant is idle and cold. As the stand-off continues, the threat to Grangemouth grows. So let us inject some common sense into this.”

His message to the union was to “drop any strike threat” while he said its owners should “fire up the plant and then negotiate against the background of a working facility, not one which is in mortal danger”.

The owners of Grangemouth, Ineos, own more than 50 manufacturing facilities in 11 countries across the world. They bought the plant from BP in 2005. The dispute which led to its closure had been blamed on a row over the refinery’s Unite convenor Stephen Deans. But on Friday it emerged there were nine areas to be negotiated including overtime and redundancy payments.

Pat Rafferty, Scottish Secretary of Unite, said dozens of workers had handed in their notice after becoming disillusioned with the company. He said: “130 employees have left the plant in the past six months because of the atmosphere of intimidation and bullying.”

The remaining staff are to hold a rally at the plant today. Unite said MPs and other supporters will join workers at the event. Mr Rafferty added: “Rather than demonstrating, workers want to be working to make sure that Grangemouth has a successful future. Instead their livelihoods are being thrown into turmoil because of Ineos’ irresponsibility which risks the future of the site.

“Anger is growing among workers and the company now risks destroying good Scottish jobs and a powerhouse of the Scottish economy. Our message is clear; we will not give in to the threats and menaces of Ineos. We urge the people of Scotland to support us in defending its future.

The company said the dispute had cost it £20 million on top of monthly losses of £10 million. Ineos has warned that the plant will close in 2017 without fresh investment and changes to workers’ terms and conditions.

A spokesman for the First Minister last night said the dispute had “nothing to do” with the referendum or politics. He added: “Scotland is an energy-rich country, blessed with an enormous array of natural resources and talented people. The issue before us is the need to get the plant operating again.”

Ineos Grangemouth chairman Calum MacLean said: “Unite’s response is unbelievable given how much effort has been put into securing a deal.”

Meanwhile panic buying started at Scotland’s petrol pumps yesterday. Customers were queuing at forecourts across the country.

“We sold triple the amount we usually do,” said an assistant at BP’s Canniesburn station in Bearsden, north of Glasgow. “Many were taking away petrol in cans after filling their tanks. It’s obvious they’re expecting a shortage soon.”