Immigration: How would ‘Yes’ vote affect Scotland’s relationship with UK and Europe?

Scotland needs a foreign legion to boost economy but European rules might stand in the way.

It is an issue which nearly 60% of voters are concerned about and should be looming large as Scots make up their minds on the referendum.

But, curiously, all sides of the independence battle are still tiptoeing around the topic of immigration, perhaps spooked by how corrosive the debate has become south of the Border.

European migrants have played an important part in Scottish history, from Polish coal miners to Italian ice cream shop owners, but SNP ministers have given few details about plans to substantially increase their numbers in a bid to drive the economy of an independent Scotland.

The Scottish Government’s White Paper on independence states the power to have flexible control over its own borders will be one of the “major gains” for Scotland from voting yes.

However, questions remain on the consequences of lifting restrictions on non-EU immigration in a country accustomed to trickles rather than floods of migrants.

We are told there will be tax revenue gains but not by how much and there is no mention in the White Paper of the potential consequences for already hard-pressed public services such as schools and hospitals.

Such financial gains and losses are important because of the demographic timebomb facing the country, regardless of the result on September 18.

According to HMRC figures, the number of taxpayers in Scotland has fallen by 210,000 since the SNP came to power in 2007.

This problem is compounded by the fact Scotland’s ‘ratio’ of workers to pensioners is set to fall significantly below the rest of the UK’s, with the House of Commons library suggesting the country would need 24,000 extra people per year to make up the gap, which adds up to around an extra million people by 2051.

Against this backdrop is the often overlooked issue of just how many Scots could leave if the country backs independence.

Research for the Scottish Chambers of Commerce found 8% of its members had definite plans to move away if there is a Yes vote and the Centre for Economics and Business Research has estimated that between 20,000 and 40,000 Scottish financial services jobs could move south of the Border.

Now clearly whether those saying they would leave would actually go through with it is an unknown factor, especially as many will have made similar threats when opposing devolution.

But one of the most damaging consequences of any flight from Scotland is that, certainly in the vital financial services sector, these are people in the higher tax bands.

The UK and EU run different systems and it’s by no means obvious which, if any, Scotland would work to.

The White Paper claims the current system, under which immigration is reserved to Westminster, doesn’t work for Scotland.

And while the UK Government’s paper on the topic claims every pound of the £2.1 billion spent on managing and maintaining Britain’s borders benefits everyone, plenty of experts agree that’s not quite so.

The Centre on Migration Policy and Society says London and the south east is “the tail that wags the dog” on immigration policy.

On that basis the argument for Scotland controlling its own borders is fairly clear. The White Paper says Scotland will be more pro-immigration than the rest of UK.

It will particularly look to attract highly skilled migrants by reinstating the post-study work visa that allows graduates to stay on when their studies are completed, an issue which Scottish universities say is hurting them.

It promises a “robust and humane” asylum system, though the Scottish Refugee Council has raised concerns about the lack of detail on this front.

But for most people the issue of immigration and borders comes down to whether we’d have to show our passports when travelling between Scotland and the rest of the UK. The answer is inextricably linked to immigration policy.

Research by Oxford University’s Migration Observatory has found most people believe passport checks at the border are unlikely.

The White Paper asserts that Scotland will remain in the Common Travel Area that currently covers the UK, Ireland, Isle of Man and the Channel Islands and allows passport-free travel throughout.

But that’s incompatible with being in the Schengen Agreement the EU rules that new member states must sign up to allowing free movement of people.

To get its way Scotland would have to join the EU, and while that’s likely it’s not certain when it will happen. Then Scotland would also have to negotiate an opt-out from Schengen, as the UK currently has.

Britain, keen to avoid border posts in Berwick, might help out, though all member states would have to agree.

But if, and there’s a lot of ifs, that happens and it joins the CTA the fact is Scotland, like Ireland, would not be able to have an immigration policy vastly different to the rest of the UK.

And while that’s not what’s promised in the White Paper it’s probably what most Scottish people want.

Polling by the Migration Observatory showed that while Scots are not as anti-immigration as folk elsewhere in the UK they still want the numbers down.

The figures reflect the numbers of newcomers in Scotland is low compared to the say the South East of England, so there is every prospect attitudes could harden with increased immigration.

Interestingly the same Migration Observatory poll found that 60% of Scots think the Scottish Government should control immigration.

It’s not exactly what the SNP are offering but what Scots would get under independence assuming the various hurdles could be overcome would seem to match up with what they want.

An immigration policy broadly similar to the UK’s but with enough flexibility to avoid the worst excesses of anti-immigrant shtick.

One question remains is independence the only way to get that? Countries like Canada and Australia allow separate states and provinces to have immigration policies to suit their own needs.

It is possible Holyrood could be granted powers to attract the people Scotland needs whilst retaining freedom of movement in the UK.

The only problem is what happens in the event of a No vote is even more uncertain than what follows a Yes.

Report by James Millar and Andrew Picken